„The coming Anarchy“ – Eine Prognose über globale Verwerfungen aus dem Jahr 1994

Thomas Cole - The Course of Empire - Destruction

Der durch seine geopolitischen Analysen bekannt gewordene amerikanische Publizust Robert D. Kaplan veröffentlichte 1994 einen Aufsatz mit dem Titel „The coming Anarchy“, in dem er langfristige Krisentendenzen an der Peripherie Europas untersuchte. In diesem Zusammenhang sagte er u.a. zunehmende Instabilität in Teilen Subsahara-Afrikas und des Nahen Ostens sowie daraus resultierende Migrationsbewegungen nach Europa und in deren Folge ethnische und religiöse Konflikte voraus.

Die künftige Welt, die Kaplan 1994 beschrieb, werde von zunehmender Polarisierung zwischen Wohlstands- und Zerfallsräumen gekennzeichnet sein:

„While a minority of the human population will be, as Francis Fukuyama would put it, sufficiently sheltered so as to enter a „post-historical“ realm, living in cities and suburbs in which the environment has been mastered and ethnic animosities have been quelled by bourgeois prosperity, an increasingly large number of people will be stuck in history, living in shantytowns where attempts to rise above poverty, cultural dysfunction, and ethnic strife will be doomed by a lack of water to drink, soil to till, and space to survive in. […] We are entering a bifurcated world. Part of the globe is inhabited by Hegel’s and Fukuyama’s Last Man, healthy, well fed, and pampered by technology. The other, larger, part is inhabited by Hobbes’s First Man, condemned to a life that is „poor, nasty, brutish, and short.“ Although both parts will be threatened by environmental stress, the Last Man will be able to master it; the First Man will not.“

Optimistische Erwartungen über ein „Ende der Geschichte“ seien fehlgeleitet. Die Konflikte der Zerfallsräume würden zunehmend über diese hinaus ausgreifen, was zu größeren Verwerfungen führen werde:

„Most people believe that the political earth since 1989 has undergone immense change. But it is minor compared with what is yet to come. […] Michael Vlahos, a long-range thinker for the U.S. Navy, warns, ‚We are not in charge of the environment and the world is not following us. It is going in many directions. Do not assume that democratic capitalism is the last word in human social evolution.'“

Diese künftigen Konflikte würden insbesondere einen starken Islambezug aufweisen, da die Zerfallsräume kulturell islamisch geprägt seien:

„Islamic extremism is the psychological defense mechanism of many urbanized peasants threatened with the loss of traditions in pseudo-modern cities where their values are under attack, where basic services like water and electricity are unavailable, and where they are assaulted by a physically unhealthy environment. […] Beyond its stark, clearly articulated message, Islam’s very militancy makes it attractive to the downtrodden. It is the one religion that is prepared to fight. A political era driven by environmental stress, increased cultural sensitivity, unregulated urbanization, and refugee migrations is an era divinely created for the spread and intensification of Islam, already the world’s fastest-growing religion.“

Im Zuge von Migrationsbewegungen würden diese Konflikte zunehmend auf westliche Gesellschaften übergreifen und auch dort ethnische und religiöse Konflikte herbeiführen. (sw)